Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru. 相似文献
High-resolution ice core records covering long time spans enable reconstruction of the past climatic and environmental conditions allowing the investigation of the earth system’s evolution. Preprocessing of ice cores has direct impacts on the data quality control for further analysis since the conventional ice core processing is time-consuming, produces qualitative data, leads to ice mass loss, and leads to risks of potential secondary pollution. However, over the past several decades, preprocessing of ice cores has received less attention than the improvement of ice drilling, the analytical methodology of various indices, and the researches on the climatic and environmental significance of ice core records. Therefore, this papers reviews the development of the processing for ice cores including framework, design as well as materials, analyzes the technical advantages and disadvantages of the different systems. In the past, continuous flow analysis (CFA) has been successfully applied to process the polar ice cores. However, it is not suitable for ice cores outside polar region because of high level of particles, the memory effect between samples, and the filtration before injection. Ice core processing is a subtle and professional operation due to the fragility of the nonmetallic materials and the random distribution of particles and air bubbles in ice cores, which aggravates uncertainty in the measurements. The future developments of CFA are discussed in preprocessing, memory effect, challenge for brittle ice, coupling with real-time analysis and optimization of CFA in the field. Furthermore, non-polluting cutters with many different configurations could be designed to cut and scrape in multiple directions and to separate inner and outer portions of the core. This system also needs to be coupled with streamlined operation of packaging, coding, and stacking that can be implemented at high resolution and rate, avoiding manual intervention. At the same time, information of the longitudinal sections could be scanned and identified, and then classified to obtain quantitative data. In addition, irregular ice volume and weight can also be obtained accurately. These improvements are recorded automatically via user-friendly interfaces. These innovations may be applied to other paleomedias with similar features and needs. 相似文献
The transfer and evolution of stress among rock blocks directly change the void ratios of crushed rock masses and affect the flow of methane in coal mine gobs. In this study, a Lagrange framework and a discrete element method, along with the soft-sphere model and EDEM numerical software, were used. The compaction processes of rock blocks with diameters of 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0 m were simulated with the degrees of compression set at 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25%. This study examines the influence of stress on void ratios of compacted crushed rock masses in coal mine gobs. The results showed that stress was mainly transmitted downward through strong force chains. As the degree of compression increased, the strong force chains extended downward, which resulted in the stress at the upper rock mass to become significantly higher than that at the lower rock mass. It was determined that under different degrees of compression, the rock mass of coal mine gobs could be divided, from the bottom to the top, into a lower insufficient compression zone (ICZ) and an upper sufficient compression zone (SCZ). From bottom to top, the void ratios in the ICZ sharply decreased and those in the SCZ slowly decreased. Void ratios in the ICZ were 1.2–1.7 times higher than those in the SCZ.
The vertical deformation rates (VDRs) and horizontal deformation rates (HDRs) of Shanghai VLBI station in China and Kashima and Kashima34 VLBI stations in Japan were re-analysed using the baseline length change rates from Shanghai to 13 global VLBI stations, and from Kashima to 27 stations and from Kashima34 to 12 stations, based on the NASA VLBI global solution glb1123 (Ma, 1999). The velocity vectors of the global VLBI stations were referred to the ITRF97 reference frame, and the Eulerian vectors of different models of plate motion were used for comparative solutions. The VDR of Shanghai station is estimated to be −1.91±0.56 mm/yr, and those of Kashima and Kashima34 stations, −3.72±0.74mm/yr and −8.81±0.84mm/yr, respectively. The difference between the last two was verified by further analysis. Similar estimates were also made for the Kokee, Kauai and MK_VLBA VLBI stations in mid-Pacific. 相似文献
Collection and arrangement of the historical records of climatic changes and environment evolution,espectial-lyin the aspect of calamities,are made on the history documents of past 1500 years about Haiˊan region,Jiangsu Province.There existed two obvious flooding-drought frequently-occurring periods:one was from 1550 AD to 1850 AD and another was 100 AD to 1200AD.The period of 1550 AD to1850 AD is interrupted by two relatively arid and cold climatic periods:one was from 1630 AD to 1700 AD and another was 1750 AD to 1820 AD.The main characteristic of the calamity periods is that they occurred by turns,and sometimes,both drought and flooding occurred in the same year.The instability of the climatic changes in the Little Ice Age may be the main reason of the frequently-occurring flooding and drought in Haiˊan region.Research results also show that the frequently-occurring periods of flooding and drought is in close relationship with the solar activity,and therefore,occurrence of the flooding and drought may be in relation with the intensity of the solar activity.This hypothesis may need further study in the future. 相似文献
In rapid socio-economic development,the process of concentration and dispersal of various elements tends to be more dramatic,tremendously influencing the shaping and transformation of the space in metropolitan area.Survey of spatial concentration and decentralization has thus become a basic method in examining metropolitan spatial evolution.In this research,three elements were selected as the essential indicators of the process:demographic density distribu-tion,employment density distribution and business office location.Performance of these elements in Nanjing City was exam-ined historically.As Nanjing City could be regarded as a representative of metropolitan areas in China,its situation large-ly suggestes the general characteristics in similar areas of China.Hence based on the investigation of Nanjing City,four general implications were highlighted.First ,metropolitan areas in China are in a violent process and shift of spatial concentra-tion and decentralization.Second,from now to at least the near future,concentration will continue to be the central fea-ture.Third,the landscape of metropolitan areas basically exhibits a dual structure character.The gap in environmental and ecological qualities among different districts will continue for a long time.Fourth,Central Business District (CBD) is playing an important role in helping to convert the traditionally single-centered city structure into a polycentric one. 相似文献
The effects of natural fish oil,DHA oil and soybean lecithin in microparticulate diets on stress tolerance of larval gilthead seabream(Sparus aurata)were investigated after 15 days feeding trials.The tolerance of larval gilthead seabream to various stress factors such as exposure to air(lack of dissolved oxygen),changes in water temperature(low)and salinity(high) were determined.This study showed that microparticulate diet with natural fish oil and soybean lecithin was the most effective for in-creasing the tolerance of larval gilthead seabream to various stresses,and that microparticulate diet with natural fish oil and palmitic acid(16:0)was more effective than microparticulate diet with DHA oil and soybean lecithin. 相似文献
Nowadays, the research works on landscape at fine scales using high-resolution images are uncommon.This research is based on the analysis of the combination of remote sensing data (1KONOS imagery acquired in 2002 and historical aerial photo taken in 1942). In the paper, the ecotopes in Qiujiadou and Xishao villages in Yixing City of Jiangsu Province in 1942 and 2002 were compared and landscape changes as well as the causes of the considerable changes were analyzed. It was found that the ecotope changes were at greater level in some aspects such as water surface and perennial vegetation coverage etc. This study at fine scale is globally significant for the rural areas, especially for the subsistence agricultural land, which occupies larger percentage in the earth. And it analyzes the structure of landscape based on a new landscape classification system--stratifications method. 相似文献